The Jacksonville Jaguars arrive at Wembley on Sunday 18 October as AFC South leaders with a 4-1 record. Their opponent, the Houston Texans, are 1-4 after a difficult opening month, but they travel to London with the pass rush and quarterback play needed to make this divisional game far closer than the standings suggest.
Kick-off is at 2.30pm BST, and the fixture completes Jacksonville’s second consecutive week in the UK. The Jaguars beat the Philadelphia Eagles 19-17 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last Sunday, adding another close result to a season that has been built on control rather than easy wins.
The early conversation will naturally include form, injuries and betting sites, but the main football question is more interesting. Can Jacksonville’s league-leading run defence keep the Texans in long-yardage situations, or will Houston’s pass rush disrupt Trevor Lawrence often enough to turn Wembley into a low-scoring contest?
Jacksonville’s defence has created its strong start
Jacksonville’s 4-1 record has come through steady improvement rather than one extraordinary performance. The Jaguars opened with a 34-10 win over Cleveland, lost 20-13 in Denver, then beat New England 35-6 and Cincinnati 22-17 before edging Philadelphia in London.
That sequence has produced confidence, but the defence is the larger reason for their position. Jacksonville rank first in the NFL against the run through five games. Their opponents have struggled to establish an early rushing rhythm, which allows the Jaguars to bring pressure on passing downs without committing extra players to the box.
The team also rank eighth in average time of possession, holding the ball for 31 minutes and 43 seconds per game. That number reflects an offence capable of sustaining drives and a defence that keeps opponents off the field.
For Houston, the central task is avoiding obvious passing situations. A second-and-long series can quickly become a problem against a defence prepared to attack the quarterback and challenge receivers close to the line of scrimmage.
The Texans do have enough talent to change the rhythm. C.J. Stroud has not thrown an interception this season, while Houston have not turned the ball over since the opening day. Ball security gives them a route into a game where points may be difficult to find.
Houston’s pass rush can change the game quickly
The Texans’ record does not reflect the quality of their defensive front. Houston have 18 sacks, the second-highest total in the NFL through five games, and that pressure could be the deciding factor at Wembley.
Lawrence is at his best when he can take the simple completion rather than force a throw towards a preferred receiver. Against Houston, he may not have long to wait for routes to develop. The Texans can rush effectively without committing too many defenders, allowing the secondary to stay close to Jacksonville’s wide receivers.
That puts pressure on the Jaguars’ offensive line and their early-down play calling. Short passes, play-action throws and a productive running game can reduce the impact of the Texans’ edge rushers. If Jacksonville repeatedly face third-and-seven or longer, Houston will have the type of match-up it wants.
The Jaguars have averaged 24.6 points per game, placing them 12th in the league. That is a respectable figure, but it does not make them untouchable. Their last two victories were decided by five points or fewer, so one turnover or a missed assignment could alter the result.
Why C.J. Stroud against the Jaguars secondary is the key match-up
Stroud’s composure is Houston’s best chance of upsetting the division leaders. The Texans have lost four games, but their quarterback has avoided the errors that can make a poor run of form even worse.
Jacksonville have been more opportunistic in the secondary, recording six interceptions, which ranks third in the NFL. Their defence does not need to produce a turnover on every drive, but one short field could give Lawrence and the offence the chance to build a lead.
Houston must also find a way to involve Nico Collins. The wide receiver remains the most dangerous part of their passing attack, particularly when he can work against single coverage or take advantage of defensive backs concentrating on stopping the run.
Stroud cannot rely on Collins alone. Jacksonville’s ability to stop the run means Houston may need contributions from tight ends, slot receivers and running backs catching passes out of the backfield. A balanced attack would prevent the Jaguars from sitting on deep routes and attacking predictable throws.
Wembley gives Jacksonville an unusual advantage
This is not a normal road game for the Jaguars. They have played more regularly in London than any other NFL team and will be appearing in the capital for the 16th time. The Texans are making their third international appearance and their first since 2019.
Jacksonville’s experience should help, especially after staying in the UK for consecutive fixtures. The players have already adjusted to the time zone, practised in local conditions and played a competitive game in London seven days earlier.
That advantage should not be overstated. Wembley is a neutral venue, and Houston have had the full week to prepare for this specific match. Still, the Jaguars understand the rhythm of a London week better than most teams. They know how to manage travel, media commitments and a stadium atmosphere that has become familiar over several seasons.
The timing also matters. Jacksonville enter their bye week after the Texans game, so there is no reason to hold anything back. A win would send them into the break at 5-1 and strengthen their hold on the AFC South.
A division game with consequences beyond London
The Jaguars and Texans will meet again in Houston on 20 December, but Sunday’s result will shape that later fixture. Jacksonville can create real separation with a win, while Houston can stop its season drifting away before the schedule becomes harder.
The Texans’ 26-3 victory over Tennessee last week offered evidence that their poor start does not tell the full story. A second consecutive win would change the mood around the team and show that its defensive strength can translate into results.
Jacksonville have the better record, the stronger run defence and a settled London routine. Houston have the pass rush capable of making Lawrence uncomfortable and a quarterback who has protected the ball well.
That contrast should make Wembley’s final NFL game of 2026 a more demanding test than a simple look at the standings suggests.
